American sports in general suffer from two major problems which are inherently linked:
1.) Regular season games do not carry much importance.
2.) Teams have no incentive to finish in the middle of the standings as opposed to last place, this leads to teams "tanking" (not trying) at the end of the season
These same problems are not found in European sports or, more specifically, the English Premier League (EPL). It is by no means a stretch to compare these two leagues and they will provide the foundation for the argument moving forward. First, some basic information about the composition of the two organizations highlighting the important parts.
Structure:
EPL: 20 teams in the highest flight with "minor league" squads participating in lower quality divisions below the premiership. Each EPL team plays all 19 other teams both home and away. This equates to a 38 match schedule
NBA: 30 teams separated into two major conferences and six smaller divisions. No real minor league to speak of (disregarding the NBA Developmental League). Each NBA team plays its division foes twice at home and twice on the road; its out of conference foes once at home once away; and its in-conference, out-of-division foes either three or four times a year. This equates to an 82 game schedule.
End of Season:
EPL: The team with the most points at the end of the season is named the champion (Three points for a win, one point for a draw). The top four teams at the end of the season enter into the UEFA Champions League (A Europe-wide competition of top teams from various leagues). The fifth place team at the end of the season enters into the UEFA Europa League (a second class competition as compared to the Champions League). On the other side of the table, the worst three clubs are dropped from the league and replaced by the top three teams from the "minor league".
NBA: The top eight teams from each conference are placed into a playoff tournament with the top seeds playing the lower seeds in best-of-seven series' until a champion is determined. The fourteen teams who do not make the playoffs are eligible for the NBA Draft Lottery, which is a system of determining the order in which the teams draft incoming college players. The worse the record, the more statistical chance of landing a higher (better) draft pick.
This is all you need to know to see the problems. More than half the teams in the NBA are rewarded by qualifying for the season ending tournament while there is a reverse incentive for finishing towards the bottom of the standings. If you are not going to make the playoffs, it is in your best interest to be the worst team in the league.
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Taking a quick look at the standings for both leagues (as of 02/25/2010) here are some observations:
NBA:
Teams who have nothing to play for: 10 (Minnesota, Golden State, Sacramento, LA Clippers, New Jersey, Indiana, New York, Washington, Detroit, Philadelphia)
Teams who can only hope for making the playoffs and being quickly distinguished: 13 (Charlotte, Miami, Milwaukee, Chicago, Toronto, Atlanta, Houston, Memphis, New Orleans, Portland, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Phoenix)
Teams who can only hope for making the playoffs and being quickly distinguished: 13 (Charlotte, Miami, Milwaukee, Chicago, Toronto, Atlanta, Houston, Memphis, New Orleans, Portland, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Phoenix)
Teams who have a legitimate chance of winning the championship (being generous): 7 (Dallas, Utah, Denver, LA Lakers, Boston, Orlando, Cleveland)
EPL:Teams who have nothing to play for: 2 (Blackburn, Stoke City. Both teams are far enough out of the top five and safe enough from the bottom three)
Teams who have a legitimate chance of winning the championship: 3 (Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal)
Teams fighting for their lives to not be relegated: 8 (Portsmouth, Burnley, Bolton, Hull City, Wolves, Wigan Athletic, Sunderland, West Ham United)Teams with a legitimate chance of qualifying for a spot in Europe: 7 (Birmingham City, Fulham, Everton, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham)
I must say a word on the comparison between teams making the NBA Playoffs and qualifying for European competitions. There is a much higher level of prestige in playing with the best European clubs in the world than playing the fourth seed in a series. It is an achievement to qualify for Europe, as only a fourth of the teams make it in the EPL as opposed to over half making the NBA Playoffs.
So there you have it. The big number in my mind is the first category, the teams who have nothing really to care about anymore. No reason to support the team through the end of the season. The NBA number is ten (and could really include all the members of the second category which would raise the number to 23. Yikes!), the EPL number is two. Some of the most entertaining soccer at the end of a season comes from a desperate team at home fighting off relegation. No supporter is more enthused than one who is cheering to avoid playing in a lesser quality league for the next season. Compare this to a late season NBA game between bottom dwellers. Any fanatics living and dying on every shot? I don't think so.
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Now the issue is defined, time to solve it simply and smoothly.
The NBA does not have the benefit of a minor league system, so relegation is out of the question. The NBA does not have comparable leagues abroad (yet), so they cannot have any sort of worldwide competition that they can use their season as a qualification system for. The American fan loves head-to-head playoffs at the end of a season, so keep that intact.
Sounds pretty difficult to keep all this the same and yet make any improvements. It is not.
Here is all that need to be done. Instead of relegating the teams who perform most poorly over the entire season, they should be eliminated from the draft lottery. The last four teams would be slotted into the draft in random order after those who were involved in the draft lottery. For example if the season ended today, the Nets, T'Wolves, Warriors and Kings would be locked into picks number 11-14. In combination with this move, tweak the draft lottery slightly. As we have seen, teams which squeak into the playoffs are almost punished. They do not have a real chance of making the Finals and they don't get entered into the draft lottery. For the new NBA Draft Lottery, teams who lose their first round playoff series are also entered. Final change to this system, every team in the lottery should have equal chance to win the top pick.
Here are the teams most likely to be in the draft lottery with the new rules (so this includes any team who is not in the bottom four of the league or loses their first round playoff series):
Pacers, Knicks, Wizards, Pistons, 76ers, Clippers, Bobcats, Rockets, Heat, Bucks, Grizzlies, Hornets, Bulls, Raptors, Spurs, Thunder, Suns, Trailblazers
Any of these teams would have an equal chance at landing the top pick. Take the Bucks' fans. They might make the playoffs this year, they will surely lose in the first round, they will settle for pick number 17 (or there-abouts) and they will be in a similar situation the next season (barring any other management moves). If I were a Bucks fan I would not be very happy with this scenario. In the new world, they would still make the playoffs, still surely lose, now the could possibly get a top five pick, draft a player who could immediately contribute and, thus, be a more compelling team for the next season.
The last four teams would definitely complain, but would be consoled by the idea that they at least get to stay in the league (1) and many great players have been selected in the middle of the draft (2), so get those scouts out there.
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I think this speaks for itself. Every regular season game would have meaning throughout the year. Look at the schedule tonight:
GRM
A final test would be to again check the all important number from earlier to see what would change:
NBA:
Teams who have nothing to play for (the criteria being more than five games out of the playoffs or five games above the bottom four spots in the league): 2
(The Clippers are the only team to meet the criteria. The Nets are so clearly the worst team that they would have nothing to play for. The only other team that is close to this cut-off is the 76ers who are six games out of the final playoff spot and four games out of the bottom four)
I think this speaks for itself. Every regular season game would have meaning throughout the year. Look at the schedule tonight:
(1) Bucks at Pacers (the Pacers have nothing to play for now, but would be fighting for their lives under new rules. Instead they will be rolling over for the Bucks who are hunting for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference)
(2) Cavs at Celtics (good game not matter what rules are in play)
(3) Nuggets at Warriors (just like the Pacers, the Warriors would be playing inspired ball to avoid being locked out of the draft lottery)
Until the league office reads this, enjoy the NBA: Where a race to the bottom happens!
